The concept of the point spread started over half a century ago and it really sparked interest in sports betting. He leveled the playing field; the point difference became a tie. In the 1970s, Bob Martin of Union Plaza Race and Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas was the most respected bookmaker in the gaming industry. Many of the probability-making tools in use today are attributed to Martin.
Bettors are the first to say that they are not in the business of predicting the outcome of a game, but of dividing public opinion on the end result. Public opinion is created by the media; newspapers, magazines, television, radio and the Internet. The popularity of well-known teams, superstars, and media hypes influence the line in many cases in addition to stats and power ratings. Power rankings are based on many stats taken from offense, defense, special teams, points for, points against, home and away.
The bookmaker must take into account everything possible that affects the outcome of a game … information such as: team quality, injuries, incentive to win, morale, weather (football), match history, recent and past records . In a perfect world for the odds maker, an equal number of people will bet on each side.
In the 1980s, Roxy Roxborough became the main influence in creating probabilities when the age of technology began. Computers became a force in creating odds and changed the odds at the bookmakers at the same time. Roxborough founded Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVCS) in the 1980s, which now has most of the sports betting houses in Las Vegas as clients. LVCS has used computer generated power ratings and information, so everything is transmitted faster.
Certain offshore bookmakers are leading today and their numbers are probably the most respected. Establishing a line and letting the sharpest and most sophisticated handicappers play on it, and then opening it to the public, gives bookmakers the most two-way action.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants is the best betting company in the world and the most respected authority on establishing lines. There are 4-5 bettors assigned to line up for each major sport. Each of these bettors adds different opinions, strengths, and weaknesses to the process. They want to create a line where half of the people like to bet one way, while the other half will bet another way.
The opening line is the first line created by bettors and then sent to the bookmakers. It begins with each odds maker creating a line in each game, according to their own approach. This includes updated power ratings on each team. Power ratings are the opinion of bettors on each team; they are used to calculate an initial point margin. Power ratings are adjusted after each game. Non-game factors such as injuries, travel, rest, morale are some of the adjustments used to make an opening line. Recently played matches and previous matches between opponents are also considered. They sit down and come to a consensus line that the most experienced bettors approve of before being released to the bookies.
Once the opening line is released, individual bookmakers decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Experts working for individual books will sometimes have strong opinions on a game. The purpose of these adjustments is to divide the betting action equally. When betting starts, bookmakers can adjust the line at any time. By doing this, they make the team less action-packed and more engaging. Moving the line can influence the way the public bets on a particular game.
Successful bettors are those who look at the point spread as a starting point and determine which side of the line would give them the most value and chances of winning. You must decide with your head, not your heart, to be successful.