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Surfing the “Silver Tsunami”

The aging of our population, or ‘Silver Tsunami’ as it is often called, is not something of the future that requires preparation. That is why it is called a tsunami, a wave created by an earthquake. Ken Dychtwald was one of the first people to call this trend the “wave of age.” If we want to be able to surf this huge wave, we must be prepared. Most communities are not even close to being ready. The waves are already here. They are huge and grow fast.

When I was a teenager, I lived in Puerto Rico. Some of the biggest and best waves hit the northwest corner of the island, about 60 miles from where I lived in San Juan. When I lived there, some of the older, sophisticated teenagers managed to find their way up to surf. People came from all over the world to surf in Rincón, and still do. It is impressively beautiful, with big and dangerous waves. I had no board Like many younger teenagers, I learned to body surf and got sunburned regularly. Older kids who were serious surfers would hang out together, practice like crazy, and become what we call “cool.” They were really good before I even considered going to Rincon. Not many kids surfed in Rincón, but some did and came back with stories about how they rode the big waves and survived.

Those surfers could probably teach us all a thing or two about surfing the Silver Tsunami. Here are my takeaways from my experiences in Puerto Rico: what I learned secondhand from the tales told by kids who went, surfed, and talked about it.

  1. Understand the great wave and make it a priority. Too many communities are still not planning for this Silver Tsunami. Planning requires imagining the world and what it will look like 10 to 20 years from now, with a totally different proportion of older people, many with limited resources. The first step is to look at this trend and make it a community, state, and national priority. For decades, serious surfers have viewed waves as a priority. They knew when the big guys would hit Rincón and what to do.
  2. Know the board, the waves and the movements.. Communities need to study the issue; understand the demographic trend and what it means; look at community models; and map projected needs, services, and gaps. What will this trend mean in terms of needs and challenges for the population over 65? How will they live and move in the community? What will be required to facilitate mobility (many more parking spaces for the disabled, I assure you!). How can communities maintain and develop appropriate infrastructure, health care, housing, transportation, and social services? How can this be done given limited financial resources? Where are there models of communities that have responded to the Silver Tsunami? Many surfers, who did more than just try it out, learned the basics, studied and played the sport, and then developed some real skills to master the sport.
  3. Test things and run scenarios. Scenario planning allows communities to experiment with ideas, strategies, models, and different approaches to meet emerging needs. What is already abundantly clear is that we cannot simply project forward our current systems, based on the current health system, social services and community infrastructure. It is not financially feasible or sustainable. This means testing models that incorporate core elements of what’s working now, combined with innovative approaches to address the projected needs of older adults 10 to 20 years from now. It requires the kind of systems thinking that includes creating simulations of different future possibilities and building on the learnings that the simulations provide. Simulations are some of the most exciting, engaging, and useful ways to test ideas. Surfers study the waves and look for opportunities to do many types of rides that test and refine their skills in different situations before going all out.
  4. Prioritize. None of us and none of our communities have an endless supply of time, talent, or resources. Effective community planning allows the community, community leaders and organizations to prioritize and focus on what is most important. What is most important to one community may not be a priority to another. What is important is determined by the needs, resources and capacity of the community. Setting community priorities is an essential and often painful but liberating community exercise. It brings focus, clarity and broad support to a shared vision and mission. A very small minority of surfers spend their lives chasing big waves and riding them like there is no tomorrow. Most surfers have limited time and resources, and choose their trips and waves carefully based on their priorities and limits.
  5. Practice and develop pilots. With careful preparation, effective planning and prioritization, communities are ready to develop new initiatives. Although some are capable of moving at full speed, most are not. Even with good research into what works, careful planning, and effective simulations, a new initiative is full of mysteries that are best discovered through an organic process. This means developing the initiative in stages, usually starting with a pilot. The pilot is a wonderful small-scale opportunity to test programs, strategies, and relationships in a way that is less risky than going full steam ahead. This allows groups to make mistakes, build skills and experience in the pilot, and then transfer this to the implementation of the initiative. Although I wasn’t a “real” surfer when I lived in Puerto Rico, most of us who body-surfed had friends who boardsurfed. They started with small waves, built their skills through multiple races, and worked towards the biggest challenges.

An analogy can only be extended so far. Although there are many parallels between riding the Silver Tsunami and surfing, there are important differences. One is that we are all really the Silver Tsunami we are riding. Aging affects us all, since part of life is getting old if we do not die prematurely. This is life. It’s not a sport. It is the core of our community life that we are discussing. Resource planning and development is not a game. It is very necessary and it is up to all of us to respond to this Silver Tsunami. We need to make sure that our communities, our states, and our country place a high priority on caring for this enormous group of seniors who are currently reshaping the world as we have known it. The way we have managed services and resources for older adults will not work if we try to translate this current reality into the future. It’s unsustainable. What we need are elements of our current models combined with family, community and volunteer initiatives that we have just begun to develop. Maybe it’s a bit like the first skiers who tried snowboarding. But, that’s for another article.

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