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Sunday NFL Gridbits – Week 9

Matt Fargo takes a brief look at each game this Sunday and offers some ideas and trends.


This is Cincinnati’s last game before their bye week. The Bengals sit atop the AFC North thanks to an easy schedule in which their six wins have come against teams now 12-31 combined. They host the Colts in two weeks. Trendsetter: CINCINNATI is 6-0 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

The Ravens are coming off Monday’s one-point loss. This is the second of four divisional games in a five-game stretch, all against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The offense scored the most points this season against the Steelers on Monday. Trendsetter: BALTIMORE is 9-1 more in home games in the second half of the season for the last 3 seasons.


Tennessee has lost three straight games and the defense has allowed 31 points or more in five of its eight games. The Titans have a bye next week and then can play four of their next five games at home. Trendsetter: TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS against conference opponents for the past 2 seasons.

Cleveland has also lost three straight games and allowed the Texans their first win of the season last Sunday. The offense has scored 16 or fewer points in five of its seven games, while the defense has allowed 19 or fewer in five straight games. Trendsetter: CLEVELAND is 10-2 Down in games where the line is +3 to -3 during the last 3 seasons.


Houston finally got into the win column last Sunday, but it could be the only one for a while as its next three games are against teams with a winning record. The Texans defense tied a season low by allowing just 16 points against the Browns. Trendsetter: HOUSTON is 12-2 ATS after losing 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

Jacksonville allowed more than 20 points for the first time last week at St. Louis and it was their first loss of the season where the offense scored in the 1920s. The Jaguars host the Ravens next week before going on a road trip of three matches. Trendsetter: JACKSONVILLE is 13-2 short after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in the last game since 1992.


The Raiders first won on the road last week in Tennessee and have now won three of their last four games to move a game below .500. This is the second game of a five-in-seven road stretch after playing three straight games at home. Trendsetter: OAKLAND is 4-16 ATS in road games after covering the gap in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.

The Chiefs have come off two straight road games and continue this game with two more on the road before ending the season with four of six at home. The loss at San Diego snapped a two-game winning streak and left them 1.5 games behind Denver. Trendsetter: KANSAS CITY is 19-8 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in his last game since 1992.


Atlanta has a bye week that was good for the bye, but killed the momentum of a 4-1 winning run. The Falcons are tied at 3-cushion in the NFC South with two straight home games after this one, including a game with Tampa Bay. Trendsetter: ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS after playing a home game for the past 2 seasons.

The Dolphins won for the first time on the road last Sunday in New Orleans and are now just one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Miami hosts New England next Sunday before heading to two straight games outside the division. Trendsetter: MIAMI is 10-1 after playing its last away game in the last 2 seasons.


The Lions suffered a tough home loss in overtime last week against the Bears, who took first place in the NFC North. Detroit has allowed 21 or fewer points in five straight games, but the offense has scored 20 or fewer in four of those games. Trendsetter: DETROIT has 2-13 ATS as a route favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

The Vikings season worsened when Dante Culpepper fell for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. The Vikings’ two victories have been against teams with a 3-12 combined, but a win against Detroit could lead to a first-place game. Trendsetter: MINNESOTA is 18-5 ATS as a local underdog since 1992.


The Panthers have won four straight games and their two losses have been by just three points each. Carolina has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, but it gets tougher with six of her last nine games against teams with a winning record. Trendsetter: CAROLINA is 8-1 in away games after a home win over the past 3 seasons.

Tampa Bay was caught looking to the future or just not that great of a team after their loss in San Francisco. Three of his next four games are at home before a brutal three-game road trip that begins in December. Defense continues to rank first in the NFL. Trendsetter: TAMPA BAY is 13-2 ATS from an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992.


San Diego will seek revenge on the Jets for last season’s overtime playoff loss. The Chargers have won four of their last six games and their four losses this season have been by four points or less. They have a goodbye next week. Trendsetter: SAN DIEGO is 10-1 ATS in away games for the past 2 seasons.

The Jets haven’t played at home since Oct. 9 in a win over Tampa Bay. The offense is reeling, having scored 17 points or less in six of its seven games this season. New York is 4-0 after a bye week with Herm Edwards. Trendsetter: NY JETS is 8-1 down after being outscored by 75 or more yards in the last game in the last 3 seasons.


The Bears have won three straight games and are now alone in first place in the NFC North. The victory over Detroit last Sunday was the first on the road this season and was the first game in which the offense scored more than 10 points on the road. Trendsetters: CHICAGO is 14-2 behind in road games against teams that have given up 24 or more points per game since 1992.

New Orleans has lost four straight games and six of its last seven. The defense allowed fewer than 28 points for the first time in four games and the Saints take a break with the offensively challenged Bears coming in. New Orleans has a goodbye next week. Trendsetter: NEW ORLEANS is 10-23 ATS in home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.


Seattle is coming off a bye week after winning three straight games to take a 1.5 game lead in the NFC West. The Seahawks alternate home and away games for the remainder of the season and six of their remaining nine games are against teams under .500. Trendsetter: SEATTLE is 8-0 when playing against a team with a losing record in the past 2 seasons.

The Cardinals are three games behind the Seahawks and a loss here likely ends any chance of a division title. Arizona is 1-2 at home with both losses by five points or less and both reaching the final minute. Three of the next four are on tour. Trendsetter: ARIZONA is 8-1 with a road loss against its opponent in the last 3 seasons.


New York took the lead in the NFC East with a beating of the Redskins last week. This is a sandwich game after two home games with two more home games on the deck. Tampa Bay was caught sleeping last week and the Giants must avoid disappointment. Trendsetter: NY GIANTS are 0-9 ATS vs. poor offensive teams – averaging

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